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Alarcón, L F, Rodríguez, A and Mourgues, C (2012) Impact of Machine-Failure Costs on Equipment Replacement Policies: Tunneling Company Case Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 767–74.

Deshpande, A S, Salem, O M and Miller, R A (2012) Analysis of the Higher-Order Partial Correlation between CII Best Practices and Performance of the Design Phase in Fast-Track Industrial Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 716–24.

Hegazy, T and Menesi, W (2012) Heuristic Method for Satisfying Both Deadlines and Resource Constraints. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 688–96.

Koo, K and Park, S (2012) GA-Based Fuel-Efficient Transfer Path Selection Model for Delivering Construction Materials. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 725–32.

Oates, D and Sullivan, K T (2012) Postoccupancy Energy Consumption Survey of Arizona’s LEED New Construction Population. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 742–50.

Petroutsatou, K, Georgopoulos, E, Lambropoulos, S and Pantouvakis, J P (2012) Early Cost Estimating of Road Tunnel Construction Using Neural Networks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 679–87.

Ranasinghe, U, Ruwanpura, J and Liu, X (2012) Streamlining the Construction Productivity Improvement Process with the Proposed Role of a Construction Productivity Improvement Officer. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 697–706.

San Cristóbal, J R (2012) Contractor Selection Using Multicriteria Decision-Making Methods. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 751–8.

Sing, C, Love, P E D and Tam, C M (2012) Stock-Flow Model for Forecasting Labor Supply. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 707–15.

Tatari, O and Kucukvar, M (2012) Eco-Efficiency of Construction Materials: Data Envelopment Analysis. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 733–41.

Wang, C, Liu, M, Hsiang, S M and Leming, M L (2012) Causes and Penalties of Variation: Case Study of a Precast Concrete Slab Production Facility. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 775–85.

Xie, H, AbouRizk, S and Zou, J (2012) Quantitative Method for Updating Cost Contingency throughout Project Execution. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(06), 759–66.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Risk management; Probability; Forecasting; Construction industry; Budgets; Costs; Contingency updating; Value at risk; Probabilistic forecasting; Construction industry; Budgets;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000457
  • Abstract:
    This paper presents a method for project cost contingency forecasting and updating based on Value at Risk at a certain confidence level during project execution. The method is applied and demonstrated through an ongoing tunnel construction project lasting for several years. The method makes use of newly available information as the project progresses, and project daily cost and daily progress are analyzed and used as inputs for the quantitative model. The forecasts compare favorably with actual contingencies. The method provides opportunities to update contingencies at project milestones and to allocate appropriate contingencies at different project phases. This is beneficial for major companies which run multiple projects lasting for years, allowing them to set appropriate contingencies on certain timelines and to improve resource utilization.